Followers of Commercial Mortgage Loan Blog knew long ago that the housing tax credit was a dumb idea. We posted as much months and months ago. Now a study, by some academic types at Northwestern, have studied it and came to the same conclusion:
The housing tax credit:
Great, another $22B down the rat hole. Read Tax Prof’s post about the study here.
Fannie Mae, it turns out, is a bigger scam than Bernie Madoff could ever have dreamed of; a sad, expensive and disgusting example of corruption and cronyism that derailed the economy of our country. NY Times Op Ed columnist, David Brooks has penned an indispensible summery of an important and valuable book.
Read the Op Ed here. Get the book here.
Learn from history or be destine to repeat it.
Sam Zell made himself a billionaire by investing in real estate and he thinks all the talk of a meltdown in commercial real estate is a bit overblown. Watch below as Betty Liu of Bloomberg interviews Mr. Zell. His insights are welcomed and valuable.
Click here to view the video.
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multifamilyexecutive.com has published an interview with Christopher Thornberg, one of the few economist to warn of the empending housing bubble. The article, by Jerry Ascierto, is originally from Apartment Finance Today. Mr. Thornberg claims that most are overly pessimistic right now. Check it out, its a short read worth your time.
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Mortgage Apps;52 Weeks - MBA
This MBA chart shows a slight uptick in new mortgage apps. Take it for what it’s worth.
William Lucy and Jeffery Herlitz of the University of Virginia have conducted research that concludes that housing in the United States is “mostly stable”.
They claim that traditional indicators paint too grim a picture because they overweight particularly depressed areas that have their own particular set of problems.
Lucy and Herlitz have produced a valuable and interesting paper. I did not realize, for instance, that 87+% of all foreclosures are concentrated in AZ, CA, FL and NV. (That leaves only 23% for the rest of us.)
The UVA school newspaper did a story on their findings.
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$2,000,000,000,000; that’s a lot of dough!
When Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia they snared an additional $379B in servicing rights bringing their total servicing portfolio to $2.1T.
Some of the loans are floundering (~4% of prime loans are delinquent) and foreclosures are rising to problematic levels (~1.5%) but, so far, Wells seems to be managing the portfolio very well. Wall Street and the world will continue to watch this situation closely.
Wells also recently reported more than $70B (a new record for them) worth of mortgage applications in the pipeline. Nice. We should start seeing those close in March ’09.
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The bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings has been trying to sell Aurora Loan Services, (ALS) its alt-A mortgage servicing unit (alt-A = less than prime, more than sub-prime) but can’t find a buyer. According to an investment banker they have been actively seeking a buyer for “several months”
ALS is one of the top 20 residential mortgage servicing companies in the country. We don’t have their current numbers but do know that at one time they held the rights to more than $120B in loans. The bulk of the loans are alt-A but there is some sub-prime as-well as some A paper in the portfolio.
ALS is not part of the famous Lehman bankruptcy that nearly caused the end of life as we know it. ALS is in-fact, part of Lehman Brothers Bank domiciled in Delaware.
It is a testament to our times when no one is willing to agree to buy the rights to collect fees on $100B+ just because the business deals in less than perfect mortgage paper.
The blog over at the American Apartment Owners Association has an interesting post that drills down on the recent foreclosure numbers that ostensibly show improvement across the nation. They conclude that statistics lie and we ought not get too excited by these reports.
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CNBC looks for signs of real estate recovery. The Associated Press says; No Chance.
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